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NHL Awards – Primitive Predictions

21 Jun

2011 NHL Awards Logo

This isn’t who should win, this is who’s going to win, and why.

UPDATE: Primitive Puck goes 5 for 5 in NHL Awards predictions prophesies.

Vezina – Tim Thomas

When you set a record for the highest save percentage in the history of the game, you get the Vezina, period.

Hart – Corey Perry

To me this is clearly a two horse race, but the key will lie with the oft-argued definition of the award.  That is, that it’s given to the player who’s “most valuable to his team”.  With that in mind, it’s hard to argue with the guy who single-handedly dragged his team into the post season, scoring 15 goals in March alone, especially when he’s up against a guy whose team won the President’s Trophy and is playing on a line with the reigning NHL MVP and leading scorer.

Without Perry the Ducks don’t even get close to the playoffs, without Daniel Sedin, the Canucks finish 5th in the league instead of 1st.  No contest.

Norris – Lidstrom

I’m having a really hard time with this one.  It’s Chara or Lidstrom.  My thinking here is that the voting was completed when everyone thought Lidstrom was going to retire, so the Scorcese factor will come into play and Lidstrom will win.

Calder – Jeff Skinner

The youngest of the lot at 19 years old (Grabner is 23 and Couture is 22) leading rookies in scoring on a non-playoff team as an 18 year old is too good to pass up.

Lady Byng – St. Louis

Because 99 points, that’s why.

The other awards are a mixture of too boring and too difficult to predict, so I’m out of here!

There Can Be Only On*AAAHH* HE BIT MY FINGER!!!

15 Jun

Patrice Bergeron and Alexander Burrows

It’s hard to believe I have to work hard just to come up with a post about Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals….but…here we are.  I realized last night that the second you decide that you’re not going to write about Roberto Luongo, you’re almost out of stories.  At least that’s what the lamestream media would have you believe.   It turns out, surprisingly, that you can’t make it to the last game of the season without having a couple of interesting storylines.  And so…this is the story…of those stories…

– I heard a professional hockey analyst describe these finals, without any sense of irony, as “classic” because “it’s not like any other finals I’ve ever seen”.  So there you have it, these finals…classic-ly un-classic.

– 43 year old Mark Recchi is tied for the scoring lead in the finals.  If Boston wins you have to think he retires, but what if they lose?

– Vancouver is either a really fucking good hockey team or a really fucking lucky one.  Like it or not, they’ve made it to game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals with a goalie who’s been pulled 4 times (I know it’s technically only 3, but I count an 8-0 game as a pulling) and a minus rating as a team! Imagine how good you have to be, to be outscored and still win.

Bodog has 5 to 1 odds that Luongo gets pulled tonight.

– Downgoesbrown has a great deconstruction of the run each of these teams had to put together that, for me, really highlights the idiocy of cheering for a jersey on any serious level.

Question of the Day: “Should a team that’s fallen so short on so many levels -biggame production, personal comportment, class -and which is (so we hear) unloved by many in the Rest of Canada be given the hero treatment if they rebound from their Boston embarrassments and win tonight?”

Answer of the Day: “No.”

– Let us pray, that in a year full of idiotic gestures and acts, this game isn’t decided based on a ridiculously stupid play by a ridiculously stupid player on one side or the other.  On the other hand…maybe it would be a perfect ending, it wouldn’t be the first time the Hockey Gods have shown us the error of our ways.

– I’ve never heard so many hockey fans talk about how they just want the season to be over.  To all those fans…I would have them be reminded of this.

That’s it, I’m out of here. Go Hockey Team!!

2 Games a Piece….What are the Odds?

10 Jun

While the Bruin’s inspired play over the last two games has the Beantown faithful feeling a whole lot better about their team’s chances, the bookies still have the Canucks as the heavy favourites.  That’s not to say that people haven’t taken notice of the 12-1 beatdown the Canucks have received, the B’s are now sitting at 31/20 as opposed to the nearly 2-1 (39/20) underdog they started out as.

The Canucks on the other hand have only seen a slight dip in bookies confidence and are now sitting as the favourites at 4/7, having dropped from 20/47 (or 4/9.4 for those that have trouble with math).

So the question is, what does a team need to do to get some respect around here?  Because obviously outscoring a team 14 – 5 in four games is not enough.

One person that is getting some respect these days is Bruin’s stopper Tim Thomas, who is now the 2/1 favourite to pick up the Conn Smythe as the MVP of the playoffs, replacing Ryan Kesler who, as I reported earlier, was far and away the favourite to win the trophy when the finals started.

Stanley Cup Finals – Betting Odds from a Guy who Knows Nothing about Betting Odds

1 Jun

I’ve been more and more interested in hockey betting in the past couple of months, so I thought it would be interesting to see what the odds look like throughout the finals this year and learn a few things, things which I’ll share with all of you.

So, looking at the odds below, using my terrible math skills and naive knowledge of sports betting in general, it looks like the bookies aren’t giving the Eastern Conference champs much of a chance this year.

NHL Finals Betting Odds

What this horribly confusing chart basically means is this….if you bet $100 on the Bruins, you’ll win $200 on top of your bet, give or take, (for a total of $300).  If you bet $100 on the Canucks, you’ll only win 45 bones on top of your initial 100.  I’ll have an article explaining how these numbers work some day, for now, go here for a tutorial.

As for game 1, the Canucks are even heavier favourites (which makes sense seeing as they’ll be playing in front of a rocking Rogers Arena), coming in at -200 to the B’s +170.  This means I need to bet 200 dollars on Vancouver if I want a 100 dollar return but the same bet on the Bruins will net me 140 dollars, a 70% return on investment, vs. a 50% return for the Canucks bet.

Math, right?

Keep in mind Boston fans, the Flyers were even bigger underdogs last year at +200 to the Blackhawks -200 and they managed to push it to OT in game 6 with some major injuries. And Philly didn’t exactly have a Vezina winner in net.

Other interesting notes from looking at the odds….

– Kesler is FAR AND AWAY, the odds-on favourite to win the Conn Smythe.

– The series will likely end in 6 or 7 games. (not really going out on a limb there)

– You’ll get 15-1 odds if you want to bet that a player from the losing team will win the Conn Smythe.

– If you bet 250 dollars that there will be a 5 minute major at some point during the finals, you’ll win 100 bucks.  With Lapierre, Lucic, Torrer, Kesler, Horton, Marchand and Bieksa playing, that’s money in the bank!